- USD / CHF exchanges near a critical resistance zone, because the markets assess continuous tariff uncertainty and economic data in the United States.
- The feeling of American consumers has weakened in early May, which raises concerns about economic prospects.
- The technical levels suggest that the increase is capped nearly 0.8540, with strong support around 0.8320.
The USD / CHF pair is negotiated on Friday, testing a large resistance area nearly 0.8380 while merchants digest the United States mixed economic signals and the current global trade tensions. Despite a modest gain of 0.28% during the day, the increase in the pair remains limited by wider concerns concerning American economic resilience and the uncertainty of tariff policies. The US dollar index (DXY), a green back performance gauge against six main currencies, is negotiated flat around 100.80, reflecting a prudent market tone.
The US dollar finds support because a broader risk of risk remains fragile. However, recent economic data has added to the concerns about American growth prospects. The preliminary preliminary index of feelings of consumers from the University of Michigan fell to 50.8, down compared to 52.2 in April, subcontracting market expectations and highlighting a drop in household confidence. Inflation expectations also kicked up the increase, one year forecasts increasing to 7.3%, compared to 6.5%, while five -year prospects increased to 4.6%against 4.4%, which suggests that prices are increasingly rooted.
Adding to this, PPI data in April came milder than expected, with a title of PPI title at -0.5% per month, while the basic PPI also contracted by -0.4%, which raises new concerns about the pricing power of American companies. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has referred to a new wave of prices to be implemented over the next two to three weeks, which further darkens the prospects for world trade and economic stability.
Technical analysis
From a technical point of view, the USD / CHF is faced with a critical test at 0.8540, which aligned with the retracement of Fibonacci of 23.6% of the downward trend of the peak of 2022. This level also marks a significant support of 2015 which broke earlier this year, strengthening its importance as a resistance zone. A rupture supported above this area would indicate a broader tendency reversal, potentially targeting the middle of the decline from 2022-2025 to 0.8706.
However, not erasing 0.8540 could trigger a deeper withdrawal, with an immediate support at 0.8320, a level of long-term Fibonacci which previously acted as a structural base in 2015-2016. Additional drop targets include 0.8185 and the long -term low -long cycle almost 0.7770.
The relative resistance index (RSI) remains moderate, oscillating around 37.2 on the weekly graphic, indicating that the bearish momentum withdraws but far from the inversion. The pair also tests its simple 10 -week mobile average (SMA) almost 0.8419, a level of critical short -term resistance.
Without a decisive escape greater than 0.8540, the USD / CHF will have to remain capped in the short term, with the risk of re -engagement of sales pressure if the American data continues to disappoint. The wider technical image remains down, the pair requiring a monthly closure confirmed above this level to confirm a trend reversal.
Daily graphic
