The price of gold falls below $ 3,300 over a strong American dollar while Trump reigns the tensions of China
- XAU / USD falls in the form of strong pressure from the US dollar; Price uncertainty maintains the markets.
- Us Core PCE plunges in April, but strong data elevators give, the attraction of Gold.
- Trump accuses China of violating the trade agreement, of rekindling geopolitical and price concerns.
The price of gold collapsed on Friday while the US dollar recovered land despite a drop in yields of the US Treasury bonds following a strong inflation report, which manages merchants that the American Federal Reserve (Fed) will facilitate policy in 2025. XAU / USD is negotiated at $ 3,289, down 0.83%.
Senture has changed Sour while US President Donald Trump complained that China does not comply with the negotiated agreement between the two parties in Switzerland. He wrote: “China, perhaps not surprised for some, completely violated its agreement with us. So much to be Mr. Nice Guy! “
Consequently, American actions fell, while the US dollar has recovered close daily hollows, according to the US dollar index (DXY).
Regarding trade -related news, an American Federal Court of Appeal reinstated most Trump prices imposed on April 2, “Liberation Day”, following a decision by an American international trade courtyard, which blocked most of the functions because they were considered illegal.
The personal consumer consumption price index of the United States (PCE) fell in April compared to the March meeting. Other data have shown that the feeling of consumers of the University of Michigan (UOM) in the final reading of May has improved in relation to estimates, while the expectations of inflation have decreased.
Movers in the daily gold market: plumber despite data on the inflation of the United States in the middle of the force of the US dollar
- The price of gold is under pressure due to a strong US dollar. The DXY, which follows the value of the US dollar against a basket of six currencies, increases by 0.11% to 99.44.
- The bond yields of the US Treasury fall. The American yield of the Treasury note at 10 years falls in two base points at 4.40%, while the American real yields are also down the same amount of 2.086%, slightly below the fence of May 29.
- The American basic PCE in April showed the evolution of the disinflation process, which was motivated by the restrictive interest rates of the Fed. Reading came to 2.5% in annual sliding, compared to 2.6%. The inflation of the titles came to 2.1% in annual sliding, below the increase of 2.3% of March.
- Despite a lower inflation environment, the units of ingots failed to gain ground because short positions of the US dollar in the long -term market were cut last week, according to the commitments of traders data (COT).
- The feeling of UOM consumers in May has increased from 50.8 to 52.2, exceeding estimates during its final reading. It should be noted that the expectations of inflation have dropped. During the next 12 months, expectations rose from 7.3% to 6.6%, and over the next five years, from 4.6% to 4.2%.
- After the publication of data, the preliminary reading of the GDPNOW of the Atlanta Fed of economic growth of T2 2025 increased from 2.2% to 3.8%.
- The officials of the federal reserve crossed the sons on Thursday, stressing that monetary policy is in the right place and that it would take a while to see a change in the risk balance for the Fed double mandate.
- The president of the FED of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said that the job market was in solid shape and revealed that he would not reach the inflation objective of 2% in 2025. Despite this, she declared that if the jobs were solid and that the disinflation process continues, it would be wise to reduce the rates twice as the markets are waiting for it.
- Monetary markets suggest that traders priced 52 base points of relaxation towards the end of the year, following the publication of American data, according to data from the Prime market terminal.
Source: Main market terminal
XAU / USD technical perspectives: Tobming and ready to test $ 3,250
The upward trend in gold prices is intact, although the prices of XAU / USD punctuals reach a daily / weekly fence less than $ 3,300 could sponsor certain side negotiation measures in the range of $ 3,250 to $ 3,300 in the middle of the lack of fresh catalysts before the weekend.
For a downward recovery, sellers must generate gold prices less than $ 3,250, before the simple 50 -day (SMA) average at $ 3,221. A violation of the latter will expose the transformation support from April 3 to $ 3,167.
Conversely, if the bulls grow XAU / USD exceeding $ 3,300, the resistance levels of the following keys will be $ 3,350, $ 3,400, the highest of May 7 of $ 3,438 and the $ 3,500 record.
FAQ GOLD
Gold played a key role in the history of man because it was widely used as a reserve of value and means of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and its use for jewelry, precious metal is largely considered as an asset in Houmle, which means that it is considered a good investment at the turbulent time. Gold is also widely considered as coverage against inflation and the depreciation of currencies because it was not based on a specific transmitter or government.
Central banks are the biggest gold holders. In their objective of supporting their currencies at the turbulent time, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy gold to improve the perceived force of the economy and money. High gold reserves can be a source of confidence for the solvency of a country. The central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth around $ 70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to World Gold Council data. This is the highest annual purchase since the start of the files. The central banks of emerging savings such as China, India and Turkey quickly increase their gold reserves.
Gold has an opposite correlation with the US dollar and American treasury vouchers, which are both the main security and security assets. When the dollar depreciates, gold tends to increase, allowing investors and central banks to diversify their assets on turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A stock exchange on the stock market tends to weaken the price of gold, while sales in the risky markets tend to promote precious metal.
The price can evolve due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly degenerate gold prices because of its security status. As an without efficiency, gold tends to increase with lower interest rates, while the cost of higher silver generally weighs the yellow metal. However, most movements depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is assessed in dollars (XAU / USD). A strong dollar tends to maintain the price of controlled gold, while a lower dollar is likely to raise gold prices.
