Men are not well (but they are fine)

Admin2 weeks ago

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The catalyst report is in the Grand Package “what happened” interpreting the 2024 elections by voting results and voters' files, census data and the modeling of the democratic firm that elections students anticipate each cycle as soon as the last vote is expressed.

The title of this year: men, in particular young men, were swaying hard on the right.

“The gap between the sexes in partisan preferences increased in 2024: women continued to support Harris (55%support) at the same level that they supported Biden in 2020 (56%),” said the report. “But men turned to Trump in 2024, compared to 48% support for Biden in 2020 to 42% support for Harris in 2024. These changes were observed in racial groups and other demographic groups.”

Look at the gap in black voters, a key democratic district: “In the Trump era, the gap between the sexes has increased considerably, pulled by a much greater drop in support in black men. In 2016, the gap extended to 6 points, fired by a decrease of 5 points among men. Likewise, in 2024, the gap was an unprecedented boost – while the support of black women was still 90%, black men fell 79%. ”.

The biggest driver of this gap, according to the report seems to be men aged 18 to 29.

Kamala Harris did 13 points better with the Latinas (although there was a notable shift from 2020) than the Latinos; For the first time since the follow-up of the cattle, the Latin American support for the Democratic candidate fell below 50% (at 47).

The gap between the sexes among white voters, according to the report, was the highest of 12 points.

“Although the gap between the sexes increased in all age cohorts in 2024, it was by far the largest of young voters (Gen Z and Millennials) and also the most important for the group of recent elections since the catalisticist followed detailed data,” said the report.

Democrats generally gain elections by picking up a large percentage of new voters who enter an electoral cycle; This compensates for what was generally the democratic-majority cohort which voted in the last elections but which then abandoned the electorate. Like the CookWhat first obtained the catalist's report, underlines, this is how the Democrats have always won the popular vote.

This time, this dynamic turned to his head. Harris increased the democratic field with the “super voters”, a group previously republican who voted in each of the last four major elections.

“In 2016, super voters leaned Republicans, with only 47% supporting Clinton. In 2020 and 2024, they turned to democrats, with 49% supporting Biden in 2020 and just under 50% supporting Harris in 2024,” said the report. “None of these elements is not a majority support, but they have tense themselves to democrats. These elderly voters, more likely to be owners – have historically been republican, it is therefore notable that the Democrats have won among this group.”

These voters constituted more of the electorate in 2024 than in 2020, which was a boon for Harris. But, critically, she underwent Joe Biden both with new voters and those who voted less than the last four elections. The new voters were approximately 4 million less than the group that abandoned, and they voted for Harris at historically low levels. The drift of young males was a key element of this sub-performance.

The conclusion is dark enough for the Democrats always hoping that the Obama coalition, helped by an increasing diversity in the electorate, would simply become too large to be defeated while the aging white basis of the Republicans is deceased: the “demographic is destiny”. Voters, in particular young men of color, who seemed unnecessary for a long time for Republicans are becoming more and more arranged to cross. With the exception of white men – who returned to the party when a non -wife, or Biden, was on the ballot in 2020 – the support of men, black men, Latinos and the AAPI in the Democratic Party decreased during each of the last three presidential elections, apparently motivated by the drift to the right of the youngest cohort.

In a report on good news for the Democrats, Harris has retained a base segment which has become firmly reliable for the party.

“Harris has maintained support from another set of voters: women – white, black and older women in particular – and coherent voters who are most committed to the political process,” said the report. “This very committed group of voters tends to get to Democrats during the Trump era and has shown little change of support in the past four years.”

– Kate Riga

Damage caused

The richest man in the world will reduce the amount of money he spends in the elections in the future, after spending almost a quarter of a billion dollars so that Trump is elected, leading to looting by the Trump administration of the federal government and monitoring his public profile – and Tesla's equity value – blocking and burning in the process.

“I think that in terms of political expenses, I will do much less in the future,” Musk told Bloomberg, attending Qatar Economic Forum. “I think I did enough.”

“Well, if I see a reason to make political expenses in the future, I will do it,” added Musk, dodging when he was asked if he would withdraw a step from the Trump administration because of the public return that his companies have received.

“I don't currently see any reason,” he said.

Kristi Noem does not know what Habeas Corpus is

This exchange, between the secretary of the DHS, Kristi Noem and Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH), during an audience of the Senate for internal security and government affairs on the Budget of the DHS for the exercise 2026, went around today.

On the one hand, you cannot expect an official of the Trump administration will not take advantage of trolling a democratic senator. On the other hand, it really seems that it does not know what the term means.

Hassan: “What is Habeas Corpus?”

Noem: “Habeas Corpus is a constitutional right that the president must be able to withdraw people from this country and suspend their right to …”

Hassan: “Habeas Corpus is the fundamental law that separates free societies like America from police states like North Korea,” she said, before asking Noem if she believes in the “basic protection” of Habeas Corpus.

Noem: “Yes, I support Habeas Corpus. I also recognize that the President of the United States has authority under the Constitution to decide whether it should be suspended or not.”

Johnson warns the Senate against Bill Cup

The Senate republicans plan to take the bill on the reconciliation of the chamber (if / when he really passes the room) and cut it into three or four different laws – ostensibly so that they can make adjustments in the parts of the bill they do not like (Senator Ron Johnson (R -Wi) said he was a “no” that he does not support the Medicaid cuts).

The president of the Chamber, Mike Johnson (R-La), met the Senate Republicans this afternoon and would have warned them of the major changes in the bill once in their room, according to Axios. It is probably because the bill, in its current form, is not necessarily on a sliding path for the passage in Johnson's own room, and everything that goes by may not be able to resist other DIY.