Over the past two decades, the owners have been able to claim thousands of dollars in federal tax credits to help compensate for the high costs of solar training. Things had to stay so until 2034. But this week, the House of Representatives of the United States suddenly proposed the incentives at the end of the year. If this idea survives the room and passes the Senate, it could upset the economic calculation of the food of your home with the sun.
“This would put Solar out of reach for millions of people,” said Glen Brand, director of politicians and plea at Solar United Neighbors, a non -profit organization that encourages the adoption of technology. “What the house has done is to put ordinary Americans in a really difficult place. They essentially say that they will not help people with an increase in energy costs.”
The first solar tax credits in the country entered into force in 1978, but were authorized to launch in 1985When President Ronald Rejea was in office. In 2005, however, another republican – President George W. Bush – revived them. The legislators have extended and modified the incentives since, especially recently with the Inflation Act of 2022, or Ira, which established credit at 30% of the cost of a system until 2032Before a two -year elimination.
The average cost of a solar system in the United States at the moment is just north of $ 28,000, according to Zoë Gaston, main solar analyst residential at the energy consultant Wood Mackenzie. This means that a tax credit is worth around $ 8,500.
Tuesday, the Chamber's way and means committee published an initial proposal for budgetary reconciliation This would make large extent of IRA go back, including support for residential solar. The so-called 25D tax credit would always apply to systems installed this year, then it would disappear completely.
Without tax credits, solar systems could still have a financial meaning in places that get a lot of sun or have high prices of electricity, or both, but the recovery period will probably increase. For others, mathematics may no longer work at all.
“We would expect sales and installation to increase this year, followed by a market contraction,” said Gaston. “If an owner thinks of solar energy and can afford it,” it would be time. »»
Credit 25D is not the only relevant tax relief per threat. Another credit, 48th, is available for companies that install solar energy on houses where the resident then rents the equipment or concludes an electricity purchase agreement. This allows companies to reduce what they charge for customers. According to Gaston, more than half of the residential facilities now follow this third -party property model.
Instead of eliminating 48th, the house promotes the application of limits on the origin of the material in photovoltaic panels. While experts always sort exactly what the proposed language means, it generally aims to prohibit the participation of “worrying foreign entities” – including those in China, where the vast majority of solar components are manufactured.
“This expresses the obligation on the installer or the developer to trace the supply chain in a way that is completely impossible,” said Sean Gallagher, main vice-president of the Solar Energy Industries Association policy, a commercial group. This, he said, could effectively make credit 48th effectively impossible to access from 2026.
The current language of the house could at least temporarily push people to third -party property, said Gaston. But when Wood Mackenzie did an analysis, before the house project, which supposed an ephemeral on the credit by 2028, it has always projected a 30% drop in the residential capacity installed by the end of the decade.
“It will be devastating for companies, their employees and their customers,” said Gallagher. “This will kill an industry that supports hundreds of thousands of workers and tens of billions of dollars in investment each year.”
The move of the house is not the only front wind with which the solar industry faces. Certain states, notably California, for example, have lowered the amount that owners can gain from the power of sales to the network, which makes solar energy less lucrative. Even before the Republicans took control of the Congress and the White House, companies began to leave the employees go. More layoffs followed.
Some Republicans have recognized the role played by energy tax credits in the economy and their districts. Twenty -one members of the party house signed a letter On the ways and means of President Jason Smith expressing his concerns concerning the “disturbing changes to the energy tax structure of our country”. Four Republican senators have also written The majority leader John Thune (R-SD) urging “a targeted and pragmatic approach” of any change.
“This will activate what the Senate does,” said Brand, about the future of solar credits. He thinks that it is unlikely that the proposal of the house will become the law in its current form and is optimistic that the setbacks will be rectified. “It's a piece that the Senate can do well.”
But evil in solar industry is already underway, said Jacquelyn Pless, a teacher who researching energy and the environmental economy at MIT Sloan School of Management. The constant policy on politics, she said, makes it extremely difficult for companies to plan in advance.
“The volatility of politicians is really my biggest concern,” said Pless. “Political uncertainty alone can start freezing investments, increasing costs and damaging market confidence.”
