Publications on social networks claim to refute the effects of climate change in Antarctica by comparing the amount of extent of sea ice observed in a single day in 2024 to the coverage recorded on the same date in 1979. But scientists say that these statistics are selected by cherry; They do not refute the well -observed impact and on the continent of warming induced by man on Models of ocean and maritime ice.
“We are constantly lied too (sic),” said A Post of May 6, 2025 on the wires.
The post shares an image juxtaposing two graphics measuring the extent of sea ice. One was on December 24, 1979, while the other of December 24, 2024.
“The extent of sea ice in Antarctica is 17% higher today than in 1979,” said the text under the graphics.
Similar claims have also appeared On other platformsincluding Instagram And X.
Stories seeking to deny the impact of climate change on the Arctic And Antarctic – polar regions surrounding the north and southern poles – often count on Sea ice data to do Misleading.
In this case, the graphics shared online come from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). AFP recovered exact matches For them NSIDC online archives (here And here).
But their side by side comparison is equivalent to “a classic case of cherry picking,” said Walt Meier, principal researcher at the NSIDC.
“Looking at unique days from two years does not give useful information on trends or the response of sea ice to warming,” said Meier on May 14.
Cherry selected data
The NSIDC says on its website that data on sea ice has been repeatedly poorly used spread myths on global warming (archived here). Generally, scientists look at the trends of a decade for “the extent of sea ice”, a term referring to the total area of ​​the ocean where at least 15% of the surface is frozen.
National Center for Snow and Ice Data
National Center for Snow and Ice Data
National Center for Snow and Ice Data
National Center for Snow and Ice Data
The measures taken on December 24, 1979 and December 24, 2024 show a difference in the coverage of sea ice, said the agency, but it is an increase of approximately 12% – not 17%.
The comparison of most other dates would have left a different impression.
“From January 1 to December 13, the extent of 2024 was below the 1979 levels, of more than a million square kilometers sometimes,” said Meier, noting that this is equivalent to an area about the size of Egypt.
“It was only from December 14 to 31 that 2024 was greater than 1979,” he added.
Antarctica summer months, from December to February, naturally show larger changes in sea ice due to warmer temperatures and longer sunshine.
This means that a small change in the time of the ice retreat – and when the cast iron season begins exactly – can quickly and considerably change its extent in December compared to another, said Meier.
In all 2024, warming was observed and the extent of sea ice measured below the annual average of 1979 of around 11%, according to NSIDC data.
According to the national ocean and atmospheric administration, the extent of the sea ice in Antarctic second lower Annual minimum in 2024 since the start of follow -up in 1979, with the year 2025 likely to link such save (archive here And here).
“Potential regime change”
Dramatic climate changes have already occurred in the Antarctica peninsulaThe part of the Antarctica furthest from the South Pole. The peninsula heats up at a rate five times faster than the world average – and faster than everywhere else in the southern hemisphere (archived here).
However, temperature change models at the continent remain uncertain, according to scientists.
Unlike the Arctic, where the extent of sea ice has constantly decreased in all areas and seasons since the start of the recordings, Antarctic sea ice absence a decrease defined in the long term (archived here).
“Antarctic sea ice is thin and open to the ocean, so it has much more variability and therefore the signal for global warming is not as obvious,” said Meier.
The last decade has shown more extreme fluctuations, which scientists saying could indicate a “Diet shift” in a new low state extend, perhaps because of the warmer oceans (archived here And here).
The two polar oceans are heating“The southern ocean being disproportionately and increasingly important in the global increase in ocean heat”, according to the intergovernmental panel on climate change, the main international consortium of climatologists (archived here).
Samantha Burgess of the European Center for Middle -range weather forecasts, which manages the climate monitor of Copernicus, added in February 2025 report: “One of the consequences of a warmer world is to melt the sea ice, and the record or the low -sea ice cover on the two posts pushed the world's ice coverage to a minimum of all time.”
When highly reflective snow and ice give way to the dark blue ocean, the solar radiation that used to bounce back into space is rather absorbed by water, accelerating the rhythm of global warming in a feedback loop.
The drop in ice coverage also has a serious and fast impact on ecosystems, such as the survival of penguins and their habitats (archived here).
AFP has demystified other claims on the effects of global warming in the poles, in particular here.
