We have the first survey of the New York Times / Siena College from the elections, and almost everyone will probably agree on this: the conclusions are not good for President Trump.
You would find it difficult to find a single “good” number for Trump in the investigation.
Its employment approval rating is only 42%, and voters have disapproved of its management of each number tested in the survey, including longtime forces such as immigration and the economy.
Only 43% consider it favorably, against 48% in the last survey of time / Siena before the elections and the lowest since his assassination attempt last July.
[See all the latest Trump approval polls in our polling tracker.]
On question after question, the voters say that it goes too far. Sixty-six percent of them say that “chaotic” describes Mr. Trump's second term; 59% say that “scary” adapts at least a little well.
If its figures are not good, how bad are they?
As long as he is a politician, Mr. Trump's surveys could be subject to interpretation. On the one hand, they were generally weak according to traditional standards. On the other hand, they could be considered as a sign of resilience, because many other politicians would have been condemned if they had acted like him. He won the presidency twice after all.
This time, the glass is probably closer to half empty than half full for Mr. Trump. Here are four ways to look at it.
Perspective 1: compared to other presidents
Imagine that you did not know anything about this president or his actions so far. You only knew that it is a president with a 42% employment approval rating after almost 100 days.
If that's all you knew, you must say that this presidency was disastrous.
For most presidents, the first 100 days are as good as possible. It is difficult to remember now, but at that time four years ago, Joe Biden was still compared to FDR, even the condemned presidents – think that the first mandate of Jimmy Carter or the second of George W. Bush – still had positive approval ratings at this stage.
It is not easy to burn so much good so quickly, and it generally does not become easier from here.
Perspective 2: in relation to the expectations of January
Bring back at the beginning of the year, when Mr. Trump rushed into victory, when we talked about a cultural “vibration change” to the right or even an emerging realignment.
From this point of view, the first 100 days of Mr. Trump would count as a political disappointment – at best.
Although he just won, the elections were always a decisive victory for the populist conservative policy compared to exhausted liberalism. There were countless possibilities for him to push major initiatives with significant public support, on issues such as immigration, crime, energy, “alarm clock” or the economy. In January, it seemed possible for Trump to consolidate a coalition behind these questions.
No more. Not only did he lose all political opportunity at the start of his mandate, but he also managed to transform his usual forces into responsibilities. Voters no longer say that his policies will help them personally, one of the central reasons for his victory six months ago.
Immigration may be the most obvious example. Voters still support the expulsion of illegal immigrants, 54-42, according to the survey. In a way, this is what Mr. Trump was elected to do, and he did. However, voters nevertheless disappear his immigration management because the excesses of his policy have succeeded in alienating many voters who would otherwise be.
In this regard, the usual optimistic case for Trump is much lower than it has been for most of the last eight years. Although his figures were generally weak, there was generally no promise that he could have been more. This time there was a lost opportunity.
Perspective 3: thinking about almost 100 days
Mr. Trump's 100 day program has not necessarily left as expected certain voters. He launched a trade war, made his way to executive power, reduced federal programs and launched a total campaign against legal, medical and educational establishments.
With this context, the drop in its notes is not particularly surprising. Public opinion generally moves against the party by trying to promulgate changes, and Trump has embarked on a radical political program: thirty-seven percent of Americans perceive it as trying to demolish the economic and political system, and a majority of voters say that the changes are “bad”.
This is where half a glass prospect begins to feel more sensible. Trump could even get comfort in number: despite everything he did, his 42% approval rating is more or less back to the place where it has always been.
But this optimism has limits. Even if Mr. Trump generally seems to emerge from the unscathed controversy, this time, he clearly took a hit. There was a political cost. And there is not necessarily reason to assume that he has still undergone the total penalty.
Perspective 4: Looking at the next 1,365 days
If the 42% approval rating today represented the complete repercussions of Mr. Trump's actions, we could perhaps say that he resisted enough.
But he has not yet finished; After today, there are 1,365 days left in his mandate. And the main problems leading to notes – such as prices or demands for executive energy – are not yet in the rear view mirror.
If Mr. Trump only begins to feel the political cost of his program, then this survey is full of warning signs. A large majority of voters say that the president has already gone too far – too far to change the economic and political system, too far with prices, too far with spending reductions, too far for the application of immigration.
In particular, the survey shows two clear areas where it faces additional risks in the coming months.
First, his radical demands of executive power. Already, a majority of voters say that Mr. Trump exceeds his powers as president. Only 31% of voters approved its management of the Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia case – its lowest approval note in the survey – and it would find itself even lower if it grows further. Only 11% say he should be able to send us citizens in prison in Salvador, as He suggested Last week. Only 6% say that he should be able to ignore the decisions of the Supreme Court.
Second, the economy. While 50% of voters already think that Mr. Trump has aggravated the economy, against 21% who think that he has improved, only 32% of voters say that he is responsible for the greatest challenges the American economy is confronted. If Mr. Trump's prices alone lead to the economy in the recession, as many economists await it, there seems to be room for his notes to slip further.
Until now, Mr. Trump's low notes have made no serious challenge to his presidency. This is probably the main reason for his supporters to remain optimistic.
But if his notes continue to fall in the 1930s, there would be real risks. The aura of invincibility that helped keep their opposition under control would begin to fade. It could face an emboldened judicial system and a greater “resistance” in civil society. Even the slightest cracks in his support for the congress could make it difficult to implement his agenda. If Mr. Trump remains on his current course, there is a chance that the optimistic case will become much more difficult to maintain.
