- The EUR / USD extends the losses while the IPC of the euro zone moderates beyond expectations.
- US factory orders and factory job openings are likely to challenge US dollars overlap
- The US dollar index remains close to the stockings of six weeks to 98.60.
The EUR / USD accelerates its overthrow of 1,1450 highs, returning to levels less than 1,1400 at the time of the editorial staff. Euro zone The Consumer Price Index (ICC) Reading May has shown inflationary pressures below what forecasts, which gives the ECB ECB for additional monetary softening to support the region's economy.
The CPI title stalled in May and the annual rate fell below 2% for the first time in eight months, after a 2.2% reading observed in April. The basic IPC was also stable over the month and took place at 2.3% on one basis from year to year, compared to 2.7% the previous month, beating the expectations of a shorter decrease. at a rate of 2.5%.
These figures will be welcomed by the European Central Bank (ECB), which should largely reduce interest rates for the eighth consecutive period on Thursday. The president of the ECB Christine Lagarde Will be held in its neutral tone, guaranteeing that new decisions will depend on the data, but the market is subject to additional price drops on the road, adding some pressure on the euro.
The objective is now turning to the figures for factory orders, later due to the day, which should show a significant drop in April, following the liberation day of the American president Donald Trump. Another weak reading, after the PMI figures for the manufacture of the United States on Monday, could transform a recovery of a fragile US dollar.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage of Euro variation (EUR) compared to the main currencies listed today. The euro was the strongest against the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | Eur | GBP | Jpy | Goujat | Aud | Nzd | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.22% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.05% | |
| Eur | -0.22% | -0.04% | -0.18% | -0.08% | 0.35% | 0.41% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.04% | -0.12% | -0.04% | 0.40% | 0.45% | -0.10% | |
| Jpy | -0.03% | 0.18% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.50% | 0.53% | 0.09% | |
| Goujat | -0.12% | 0.08% | 0.04% | -0.09% | 0.38% | 0.49% | -0.06% | |
| Aud | -0.55% | -0.35% | -0.40% | -0.50% | -0.38% | 0.05% | -0.53% | |
| Nzd | -0.55% | -0.41% | -0.45% | -0.53% | -0.49% | -0.05% | -0.55% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.15% | 0.10% | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.53% | 0.55% |
The thermal map shows the percentage of variations in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen in the left column, while the quotes motto is chosen in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage of variation displayed in the box will represent EUR (base) / USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: The weakness of the US dollar maintains the downward attempts of the Euro Limited
- The euro maintains its broader positive trend intact, despite the recent rebound in the US dollar. The US dollar index returned below the psychological level of the 100.00 last week and continued to languish below the level of 99.00 so far.
- Data on the euro zone published on Tuesday also revealed that the unemployment rate had increased to 6.2% in April, as expected, following an increase rate of 6.3% in March.
- On Monday, American data showed that manufacturing activity has deteriorated against expectations, increasing delivery times. These figures have confirmed the negative impact of commercial uncertainty on the activity of the sectors and triggered fears of the disturbances of the supply chain.
- The Mays US ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted a minimum of six months of 48.5, against 48.7 in the previous month, against market expectations of an increase to 49.5. New employment orders and sub-indexes have increased, while paid prices have decreased. The US dollar extended the losses after the release.
- In Europe, the manufacture of May PMI confirmed the expected reading of 49.4, marking the fifth consecutive improvement in data, although always at levels consistent with a slight contraction of sector activity.
- The German PMI was revised at a reading of 48.3, of the previously estimated 48.8, highlighting the gentle momentum of the main economy in the region. The impact on the euro was however silent.
- In the calendar today, American factory orders will be observed with particular interest after the flexible manufacturing figures seen on Monday. New orders should have dropped by 3% of the month per month (MOM), following an increase of 3.4% in March. The risk for the USD is biased downwards.
- A little later, the openings of American jobs of Jols will launch a series of outings from the job market this week, which ends with the American wage bill either on Friday. Job offers should have remained stable at 7.1 million in April.
Technical analysis: EUR / USD fails to confirm above the resistance zone 1.1435
EUR / USD reached heights of six weeks at 1,1450 on Monday, but failed to consolidate above the resistance zone between 1.1415 and 1.1435, which has been holding bulls since mid-April.
The pair, however, maintains its intact positive trend, because the weakness of the US dollar at large prevents bears for the moment. Immediate resistance is now at the 1,1450 inverted trend line, which closes the path to the top of April 22, at 1.1545.
The failure to break the 1,1450, on the contrary, could put the lowest from May 30 to 1,1310 in play before the 1.1220 support area.
EUR / USD 4 hours
FAQ Euro
The euro is the currency of the 19 countries of the European Union which belong to the euro zone. It is the second most exchanged currency in the world behind the US dollar. In 2022, he represented 31% of all exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of more than 2.2 billions of dollars per day. The EUR / USD is the most negotiated currency pair in the world, representing around 30%reduction on all transactions, followed by EUR / JPY (4%), EUR / GBP (3%) and EUR / AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank of the euro zone. The ECB establishes interest rates and manages monetary policy. The main mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main tool is the increase or decrease in interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or higher rate waiting – will generally benefit the euro and vice versa. The ECB board of directors makes monetary policy decisions during meetings held eight times a year. The decisions are made by the chiefs of national banks in the euro zone and six permanent members, including the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Inflation data from the euro zone, measured by the harmonized consumer prices index (HICP), is an important econometric for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if the 2% objective of the ECB forces the ECB to increase interest rates to bring it closer. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will generally benefit the euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data versions assess the health of the economy and can have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and PMI services, employment and surveys on consumer feelings can all influence the management of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investments, but it can encourage the ECB to establish interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if the economic data is low, the euro is likely to drop. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro zone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are particularly important, because they represent 75% of the economy in the euro zone.
Another significant data press release for the euro is the trade balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country gains from its exports and what it spends in imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought -after exports, its currency will gain in value only from the additional demand created from foreign buyers seeking to buy these goods. Consequently, a positive net trade balance reinforces a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
