The supplier of Australian Automotive Software and Technology Cox Automotive claims that the new cars market will cool, despite the introduction of new brands and an expected excess offer. However, China Inc. will always find herself with a record share.
The initiate of the industry and the statistics specialist and the Australia COX Automotive assessment predict more difficult times for the Australian cars market, but also good deals to have.
In its forecasts of 2025, Cox predicts a 5% drop in total sales compared to 2024, with an target of around 1.18 million units. This is compared to the total record registration of 2024 of 1,237 million vehicles.
But what could be bad news for OEM initiates who are fighting to achieve the objectives can be more acceptable to new car buyers, with COX predicting the reduction thanks to an excess offer, because the demand of private and fleet buyers is in the face of continuous pressure from the cost of life.
Chinese brands are likely to be the winners, says Cox, with brands such as Byd, MG and new arrivals, notably Zeekr and Geely which should hang on a market share of 20% collectively.
“Potential buyers of new cars fighting against pressure on the cost of living can expect more affordable choices in 2025, with incentives and a reduction that should increase this year,” said Cox Australia (CAA) forecasts.
“The growing inventory of manufacturers and competition on the even more intense market, associated with currently slowing demand from households from new vehicles, means that 2025 will continue to offer a buyer 'market' ' – Unlike the seller's market limited to supply.
“In all likelihood, private and fleet sales will be faced with winds and winds and a year in the year in the first half of 2025 in particular, which leads to the introduction of more incentives at OEM and concessionaire to” move metal “-manifesting themselves as discounts or lower funding interest rates,” he said.
Despite the pressure for car manufacturers to move vehicles during the first months of 2025 – including vehicles imported early to meet the new Standard vehicle efficiency regulationsWho entered into force on January 1 – COX expects the first half of 2025 to echo the majority of 2024 in terms of soft private sales.
“Sales of private vehicles – which means that everything buys non -commercial, governmental or rental fleet – has decreased by 8.0% on H2 2024, and CAA expects structural factors to stimulate this to linger in the first half of 2025,” he said.
“Other factors that may have an impact on non -private sales in 2025 include a slowdown planned in the private investment pipeline, and the short -term impact provided in the federal elections.”
COX predicts better fortunes for electrified vehicles – both hybrid and battery electric. It expects battery electric vehicles to drop from less than 7% to around 10%, while electrified vehicles overall (electric battery, rechargeable and hybrid hybrid) should enter around 30% of the total market.
COX calls for the end of tax concessions on benefits for PHEVs rented as a potential obstacle in their growth, but cites the arrival of UTES plug-in such as the Shark byd, Ford Ranger Phev and new sales arrivals, including GWM plug-ins, as a counterpoint.
“While pressure on the cost of living continues to have an impact on the private market and, with the offer being no longer a global problem, you can expect to see an even harder sector in 2025, with Keener prices and financing options a probable result for private and fleet buyers,” said CEO of Cox Australia Stephen Lester.
What does this mean for new car buyers in Australia?
If you can afford to buy a new car, do it soon-and to maximize your savings, make sure it is a car that is in the dealer.
This is particularly true if the car is at the “dirtier” end of the spectrum of emissions. The probability is that later in 2025 and 2026, Diesel Utes and SUVs will become more expensive, because the penalties linked not to respect the new efficiency of the vehicle are beginning to have an impact on new cars brands.
Other factors which, according to CAA, may have an impact on the market for new Australian cars and your bang for your dollars
- More China cars – Not only new brands, but a larger range of brand models already on the market …
- Interest rate – Reserve bank decisions to reduce rates can release our discretionary expenses and increase demand.
- The Pacific Peso – The Australian dollar shows every chance of taking a hit. This will eventually increase prices for cars.
- Vote for me – On past performance, a federal election in April or May will stop sales of companies and government. This means more cars for fewer buyers and corresponding price reductions, especially since the end of the exercise (EOFY) is approaching.
- More Australies – A leap of 1 million people in less than two years (partly due to post-pandemic migration abroad) can compensate for certain reductions in demand.
