It is a long -awaited test of strength: Jannik Sinner n ° 1 and n ° 2 Carlos Alcaraz will compete on Sunday for the title of France Open Male. The two have combined to win the last five majors, but never played in a final. And, until this moment, the two won each final they played: Alcaraz has a 4-0 sheet; Sinner 3-0.
Who will prevail? Our experts weigh on how everyone could win.
What can Alcaraz do to defeat Sinner?
Rennae Stubbs: Use his athletics and his speed by transforming defense into an offense and in the sinner by pressing. He must use his variety to move the sinner in certain parts of the courtyard, he is not as comfortable, especially with his drop shot, and be ready to come to the net and precipitate the sinner.
Simon Cambers: Well, he needs to do what he did during their four most recent meetings: play well and play his strength. Alcaraz leads 2-1 on Clay, winning in the semi-finals here last year and recently in Rome. It has the advantage on the surface, where its forehand rises high and where it can move its opponents around the courtyard even better than elsewhere.
The rallies will be long and explosive, but its best versatile game – think of the gunshots, the angles, the net – will give it an advantage as long as it serves, certainly better than him against Musetti in the semi -finals. He will also want to make the match. The sinner is incredibly strong, but following Alcaraz on Clay on four or five hours is something that few people can manage, and the Spaniard will do everything.
D'Arcy maine: Alcaraz has so much on his side in this final. In addition to being the defending champion and having the experience of playing in the final at Roland Garros, he won their last four meetings and their two previous ones on Clay. In his 7-6 victory (5), 6-1 in the final of the Italian Open only three weeks ago, Alcaraz qualified his performance as “one of the best” he had played and proudly spoke of his ability to stay focused on his game plan until the end point.
He will have to redo the same thing, using his variety and his physics, patiently choosing his places to hit and constantly change the pace. While Sinner seemed that he had not missed a beat in his return of a three -month suspension, he has not yet played a match more than three sets from the fourth round to the Australian Open. The longer the match, the more Alcaraz promotes – and it will certainly be well aware of it.
Bill Connelly: Continue to do so. Alcaraz won four games in a row in this series, and the last three mainly came from Alcaraz's ability to strike the winners against the increasingly impenetrable defense of Sinner. Until now, in the French Open, the opponents have struck the winners against Sinner out of 15% of the points. In their last three meetings in particular, Alcaraz hit the winners out of 22.3% of the points in the semi-final of the French Open from last year, 21.8% in Beijing last October and, after a first prudent set, 22.5% in the second set in Rome last month.
Whoever wins short points tends to win in this series, and Alcaraz has managed to turn the tables in this regard. He is the only player to have beat the sinner since last August, and it apparently takes his best offensive game to do the work.
What can we do to defeat Alcaraz?
Stubbs: Use his power and press the Alcaraz forehand. It cannot allow Alcaraz to dictate. It is imperative to keep the ball as deep as possible to control the points. And he must have a high percentage of first services.
Cambers: The sinner looks great to reach the final without dropping a set, and he built this invincibility aura thanks to his 20 consecutive Grand Slam match victories. However, it will have to serve Alcaraz very well, because Alcaraz will take advantage of everything that is short of returns.
Sinner hits the ball so strong that if he is on his game, he can hit holes in Alcaraz, more than anyone, but he will have to be really patient because Alcaraz will recover more bullets than all his other opponents. The sinner will also be aware of the devastating forehand of Alcaraz, so expect it to point the reverse of Alcaraz and wait for a short ball. If he can do these things, the sinner has a good chance.
Maine: The sinner has not yet abandoned a set for a reason in this tournament, and he was so solid rock throughout. Even against Novak Djokovic, he remained focused on his game and showed his steel nerves during the equality break in the third set.
This measured calm and its implementation will be a crucial Sunday in the biggest moments. If Alcaraz shows a sign of nerves, the sinner will have to capitalize. He will also have to find a way to neutralize the movement of Alcaraz's blisters and the ability to return almost every ball.
As Simon said, he must have a strong service performance and not give Alcaraz the possibility of easy points. The Italian Open marked the first sinner tournament and he has certainly only improved every match since. Would anyone be surprised to see him intensify even more on Sunday?
Connelly: I agree that the landing of his first service is enormous – the sinner fled with a lot of breaches of first service against Djokovic (especially in the first half of the match), and it is not a well in which you want to immerse yourself often. But the key against Alcaraz could come to the service of Alcaraz: Sinner is 4-3 against Alcaraz when he earns at least 37% of the service points of Alcaraz and 0-5 when he does not. He only authorized 37% once during his sequence of four defeats against Alcaraz, and he therefore faced many more breaking points (38) that he did not create (22). In a battle (and a sport!) Which comes down to such small margins, he let Alcaraz slip into the service service. It will probably have to change Sunday.
Who will win?
Stubbs: Fisherman. I think he plays as well as I have never seen, his record in Majors was incredible, and I think it's time to finally beat Alcaraz in a big match. I have the impression that his level of this tournament was as good as I never saw it on Clay. Sinner in four sets.
Cambers: Alcaraz is 4-0 in the final of the Grand Slam and Sinner has a 3-0 sheet, so something must give. These two generally bring out the best of each other, and tennis could be spectacular. But on Clay, where he has this extra time to hunt the ball, Alcaraz has a light edge. He can gain this in four or five sets.
Maine: Alcaraz in four sets. He had such an impressive season on Clay and knows exactly how to beat the sinner on the surface. This is his title to be won. And not to mention, as indicated by Bastien Fachan on xhe would have the exact age – for the day – As Rafael Nadal was when he won his fifth major. It's fate, right?
Connelly: I choose the sinner because on the whole, he is just the best player in the world right now (my kindness, it was shocking to watch Djokovic to empty his bag of towers and not even win a set against him on Friday). It is easy to see why Alcaraz could have the advantage, especially on clay, but even when Alcaraz beat the sinner, the differences between the players were infinitesimal. This one is a draw for me, and if the others pick tails, I pick the heads!
